The Environmental Dimensions of Outmigration from Rural Mexico

Lori M. Hunter, University of Colorado at Boulder
Sheena Murray, University of Colorado at Boulder
Fernando Riosmena, University of Colorado at Boulder

In many developing countries, natural resource dependency is a day-to-day reality for many rural households. As such, changes in weather and climate patterns hold tremendous potential to impact livelihoods. When livelihood options are constrained due to shifts in environmental conditions, migration becomes a significant, adaptive livelihood strategy reducing household vulnerability. In this project, we offer preliminary answers to the question: Is emigration from rural Mexico to the U.S. associated with recent patterns of precipitation, net of other socio-economic factors shaping migration patterns? Using data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP), we model U.S. emigration from rural Mexican communities as related to community, household and environmental factors. We find that households subjected to drought conditions were far more likely to send a migrant as those subjected to wet conditions. These preliminary results have important implications for policy and programmatic response to current migration pressures emphasizing diversification of rural Mexican livelihoods in the face of contemporary climate change.