Turmoil, Disaster, and Recovery: Indonesian Fertility in the Context of the 2004 Tsunami

Jenna Nobles, University of Wisconsin at Madison
Elizabeth Frankenberg, Duke University
Bondan Sikoki, SurveyMETER
Wayan Suriastini, SurveyMETER

This study examines Indonesian fertility in the context of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. We use data from four waves of an ongoing project, the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery. The longitudinal population-representative data include information on over 40,000 individuals in 526 Indonesian communities. Interviews were conducted before and at multiple points after the tsunami. In addition, communities with a wide range of exposure to the tsunami were sampled. Data from the undamaged communities and from the pre-disaster interviews help to quantify the disaster’s fertility effects and the processes by which these effects were produced. We begin by using ARIMA models to analyze monthly births from January 2000 to June 2007. We then use hazard models to assess the physiological, psychological, economic, and service-related origins of these trends. The ability to measure an array of potentially competing mechanisms can significantly extend our understanding of fertility in unstable environments.