Simultaneous Mortality Forecasts for Low Mortality Countries

Kirill F. Andreev, United Nations
Danan Gu, United Nations Population Division

Mortality forecasts are usually prepared for a single country based on extrapolation of recent trends (e.g. Lee-Carter model). This approach does not take into account the international context of the observed trends and structural shifts in age specific mortality reductions. In this work we developed a model for simultaneous forecasting mortality in several low mortality countries and applied it for producing long term mortality projections, from 2010 thru 2100.