Where and for Whom Are Fertility Intentions Predictive of Actual Fertility at the Population Level? Evidence from 21 European Countries

Kristen Harknett, University of Pennsylvania
Francesco C. Billari, Università Bocconi
Caroline Sten Hartnett, University of Pennsylvania

Using recent data from 21 European countries, we assess the degree to which fertility intentions about the ensuing three years provided an accurate projection of actual fertility over the same interval. For childless women 25-44 years old, we find that actual births fall short of intentions by a dramatic margin, with particularly severe shortfalls in Eastern and Southern European regions. For all mothers, intentions to have an additional child correspond more closely to actual births; in Southern Europe, mothers fall short of their fertility intentions by a fairly large margin. In future analyses, we will examine these patterns, as well as the countries and subgroups that depart from these overall patterns, in greater detail. Our aim is to develop hypotheses to explain why aggregate intentions are sometimes over or under achieved and to provide guidance on the conditions under which fertility intentions can be expected to accurately reflect future fertility.