Mortality Trajectories at the Very Advanced Ages

Igor Akushevich, Duke University
Kenneth G. Manton, Duke University

The shape of the human mortality trajectories at advanced ages is still under debates. Results of multiple studies suggest the existence of mortality plateau or even decline with age. To estimate the age patterns at advanced ages with high precision, we used the National Long Term Care Survey data linked to both Medicare records for 1991- 2005 and vital statistics records to 2006. Special attention was paid to the analysis of uncertainties in estimates of the mortality rates at old ages including effects of age misreporting, alternative censoring schemes, nonresponse reasons, and verification of the survival status and age at death using different sources of information. Empirical results show the decline in mortality rate above 100 for total and female population. A new six-parameter model is capable of describing the entirely age regions (65-110) without a bias in the ages 80-95 typically appeared in analyses using existed demographic models.