Projections of the Population of California by Nativity and Year of Entry to the U.S., in Addition to Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin

John Pitkin, Analysis and Forecasting, Inc.
Dowell Myers, University of Southern California

A new method of population projections is presented that extends the basic cohort component model beyond its traditional dimensions of age, sex and race or Hispanic origin. An immigrant-extended model is developed that also accounts for nativity, generation in the U.S., and year of entry to the U.S. for the foreign born population. The model is developed as an annual (one-year) model with one-year age and entry cohorts. The model is applied to California, yielding projections through 2040, and meeting the need for projections that account for major differences observed between immigrant and native-born populations of a given age or racial group, or major differences between immigrant cohorts with shorter or longer duration of residence in the U.S.