The Effect of Education on Future Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions

Brian C. O'Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Regina Fuchs, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Leiwen Jiang, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Samir KC, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for emissions from energy use. Improvements in education can be expected to lead to lower fertility, but also to faster economic growth and changes in consumption patterns. We employ a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on emissions.