Sources of Fertility Decline in South Asia: A Regional Analysis

Batool Zaidi, Population Council

Recent trends in fertility and its proximate determinants in the three populous countries of South Asia - Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan – are well-established thanks to successive national demographic surveys in all three countries. This research augments the existing literature by decomposing fertility change into contributions of changes in demand for children, changes in wanted and unwanted fertility rates, and changes in nuptiality, which brings into focus distinctions central to major frameworks for fertility decline. In addition, because we conduct the analysis at the sub-national level (27 divisions/states/provinces), the results reveal both within-country heterogeneity in these large South Asian countries as well as cross-country shared legacies (Bengal, Punjab). We analyze fertility survey data collected in 1990-93 and 2005-07 in all three countries. We consider patterns of two types: associations between elements of the decomposition (e.g., change in the demand for children and change in the unwanted fertility rate) and geographic patterns.