The Stability and Predictive Ability of Fertility Intentions in Western Kenya

Jennifer Johnson-Hanks, University of California, Berkeley
Edward Miguel, University of California, Berkeley

This paper presents longitudinal data on fertility intentions from the Kenyan Life Panel Survey (KLPS), examining how stable these intentions are over time and the degree to which they predict subsequent reproductive behavior. The KLPS dataset contains unique educational, labor market, health, nutritional, demographic, and cognitive information for 6,800 people as they grew from children into young adults over ten years (1998-2008). The last two data collection rounds included modules on reproductive intentions and behavior, making it possible to track changes in stated intentions over time, and to identify the degree to which intentions predict outcomes over the subsequent three years. In addition, an experimental set of questions about the expected consequences of different life events on fertility intentions allows us to examine how these young adults think about the formation and meanings of fertility intentions.