Forecasting Longevity Improvements at Older Ages in India

Preeti Preeti, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Warren C. Sanderson, Stony Brook University, State University of New York (SUNY)
Laishram Ladusingh, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

This paper focus on the analysis of future longevity increases in India and its major states. Forecasts are made by age, sex, urban/rural residence and sixteen major states of India. Data from Sample Registration System by Registrar General of India (1971-2007) is used. Life expectancy at age sixty is analyzed to study the patterns of mortality improvements. Sigma, beta and conditional convergence models are used to study the pattern of life expectancy changes in states. Extrapolation of LE60 is made by fitting different regression models. Female life expectancy is going to increase with higher pace in coming future than male, which raise a policy concern for more elderly women available for social security in future. Female life expectancy at age 60 is going to be 21.9 years in 2032, while for males the LE60 in 2032 may reach to 19.1 years.