A Spatial Panel Analysis of Italian Regional Fertility

Agnese Vitali, Università Bocconi
Francesco C. Billari, Università Bocconi

Fertility trends in Italy have varied spatially over time, and Italy has substantial regional variation in fertility - more than any other country. If, historically, the South was characterized by high fertility levels, in recent years the trend has inverted. This paper investigates whether regional fertility differentials in Italy have been increasing or decreasing over the period 1952 to 2009. Also, we investigate whether that trend has inverted, whether there are different speeds of change, and whether there is spatial auto-correlation in observed fertility levels.