The Role of Demographic Transition in the Formation of the North African and Trans-Saharan Migration Systems

Giambattista Salinari, University of Florence
Gustavo De Santis, University of Florence

Our paper aims to assess the role of population growth as a major determinant of international migration in a geographical area covering Europe, West and North Africa over the last 30 years. Others have found a lack of statistical association between population growth and migration but some of this is due to lagged effects, interactions, and selection on the dependent variable. We use fixed effects applied to the demographic series concerning net migration rate. Our results confirm that population growth is one of the major determinants of net migration. The majority of the interaction terms included in the models are, moreover, statistically significant. This is in line with Davis’ “multiphasic response” theory: a raise in the available arable land, in land productivity and in the proportion of urban population reduce the effect of population growth on net migration rates.