Fertility Decline in Albania: Interplay with Societal Crisis and Subsequent Consolidation

Mathias Lerch, University of Geneva

Cross-sectional comparisons of fertility decline in former socialist countries point to a bi-phasic response with an initial crisis-induced limitation at higher parities, followed by fertility postponement during economic and political consolidation. In relying on birth histories from the 2002 Reproductive and Health Survey and the 2008/09 Demographic and Health Survey, we investigate the extent to which this schematic model withstands longitudinal investigation in Albania. Trends in synthetic parity progression ratios since 1993, as well as socioeconomic differentials, suggest the importance of social and cultural context in influencing demographic responses to Albania's crisis in the 1990s. The anticipation of marriage and births brought about an initial fertility increase; childbearing at higher parities did not drop before the financial crisis in 1997. With subsequent economic and political consolidation, marriage and birth postponement starts to diffuse among higher educated city dwellers thereby sustaining the recent fertility decline to sub-replacement levels.