Schooling Dividends from Fertility Transitions Early Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa (1990-2005)

Parfait Eloundou-Enyegue, Cornell University
Sarah Giroux, Cornell University

In theory, fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa should boost schooling by reducing age-dependency, but questions remain about the size and catalysts of this dividend. We estimate potential schooling dividends in SSA by using a detailed framework and decomposition methods. Results about catalysts show how, beyond policy, dividends depend on characteristics of fertility transitions, concomitant changes in the economy, and education budgets. Results are mixed. On the supportive side, a handful of vanguard countries have now seen substantial gains in resources per child, with fertility transitions accounting for between 17% and 53% of the gains. On the cautious side, these gains remain nominal and selective. Despite nominal gains, Africa lost or barely managed to keep ground relative to the rest of world, whose age dependency declined even more during the same period. Also, the largest dividends are registered among better endowed countries, raising concerns about growing schooling inequality across SSA.