Economic Recession and First Births in Europe: Recession-Induced Postponement and Subsequent Recuperation of Fertility in 17 European Countries, 1970-2005

Karel Neels, University of Antwerp

The recent economic recession raised further interest in the effects of recession on fertility. Literature suggests that unemployment is strongly related to postponement of first births and more closely reflects the impact of recession than general indicators such as GDP. Effects of recession further vary in terms of gender, age, ethnic background, and socioeconomic position. The decline of fertility following recession is routinely interpreted as a short-term tempo effect with limited implications for fertility quantum, but research distinguishing effects of recession on tempo and quantum is lacking. Using data from the European Social Survey, this paper analyzes the impact of macro-level unemployment rates on first-birth hazards for 17 European countries between 1960 and 2005. The results provide empirical support for recession-induced postponement of first births at short lags, and of recuperation at considerably longer time-lags. The paper further explores between-country variation of these effects and variation by education.