The IMEM Model for Estimating International Migration Flows between Countries in Europe

James Raymer, University of Southampton
Jonathan J. Forster, University of Southampton
Peter W.F. Smith, University of Southampton
Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton
Arkadiusz Wisniowski, University of Southampton
Guy J. Abel, University of Southampton

In order to fully understand the causes and consequences of international population movements in Europe, researchers and policy makers need to overcome the limitations of the various data sources, including inconsistencies in availability, definitions and quality. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for harmonising and correcting the inadequacies in the available data and for estimating the completely missing flows. The focus is on estimating recent international migration flows between countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA), using data primarily provided by national statistical offices and Eurostat. The methodology is integrated and capable of providing a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.