Fertility in the Transition Economy: Evidence from the Czech Republic

Olga Sivkova, Charles University in Prague

From the beginning of the 90’s, a fertility decline has been documented across the entire post-communist region. The extensive debate on driving forces behind this phenomenon encompasses mainly three approaches: the Second Demographic Transition, the Postponement Transition and the Hypothesis of an economic crisis. All of them, however from a different perspective, consider economic performance as a relevant factor. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship of fertility and economic performance in the transition economy of the Czech Republic and test by employing the multi-variable vector autoregressive models (VAR) if the economic changes had a significant impact on fertility decision of the Czech population in the short run. Using quarterly data for the Czech Republic for the period 1996-2008, three VAR models are built up and the responses of fertility to output growth disturbances, unemployment and money holdings are examined.