Immigrants' Children and Ethnic Fertility Differentials in the U.K.

Sylvie Dubuc, University of Oxford

To analyse ethnic fertility levels and age patterns differentials in the UK, new estimates were produced distinguishing UK-born and foreign-born women of the various ethnic groups over the past 20 years. The method used here is thought to provide a valuable solution to minimize the increasingly documented risk of overestimation of fertility measured by period TFRs. Results are further compared to the fertility of earlier wave of immigration (in the 1970s). Overall results provide evidence that the convergence between ethnic groups is primarily driven by the increasing proportion of the UK-born generations of women whose fertility approaches the UK average. Deviations from the classical assimilation theory expectations are also observed and suggest an important role of socio-economic factors in shaping fertility and intra-ethnic social stratification. The existing theoretical framework available to explain immigrants and race/ethnic fertility differentials (including segmented assimilation and minority status hypotheses) is used to discuss the findings.