The Future Burden of Overweight and Obesity until 2045 in Germany

Christina Westphal, University of Rostock
Gabriele Doblhammer, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Overweight and obesity are among the leading risk factors promoting a number of chronic conditions and premature mortality. In this paper, we project the future number of overweight and obese persons aged 50+ in Germany until 2045, comparing two approaches. Our projections are based on the German Microcensus for the years 1999, 2003 and 2005 and on the 12th coordinated population projection. The analyses are performed separately for males and females in East and West Germany. Results show that the share of overweight and obese people aged 50+ on the total population 50+ will remain constant according to the period approach. However, according to the cohort approach that considers cohort specific overweight and obesity rates, the share of overweight and obese people will be significantly different from this. Hence, forecasts considering only current trends misjudge the number of expected people with overweight and obesity.