Polygyny and HIV Transmission in SSA: Explanations for the Benign Concurrency Effect

Georges Reniers, Princeton University
Rania Tfaily, Carleton University

We previously identified a negative correlation between the prevalence of polygyny and HIV at both the national and sub-national level and therefore dubbed polygyny a case of benign partnership concurrency. In this paper, we restate the association between polygyny and HIV using a multilevel model. At the individual level, we find a positive correlation (junior wives only). The ecological-level correlation is negative, suggesting that polygyny inhibits the propagation of HIV. We then investigate four mechanisms that could explain this discrepancy: (1) the sexual network structure characteristic of polygyny, (2) the disproportionate selection of HIV+ women into polygynous unions, (3) a reduction in the frequency of intercourse in conjugal dyads of polygynous unions, and (4) the restricted access to sexual partners for younger men in populations where polygyny is common. We relate these results to recent discussions of partnership concurrency as a major factor explaining the differential spread of HIV.