The Partisan (Red/Blue) Fertility Response to the Great Recession

S. Philip Morgan, Duke University
Erin Cumberworth, Stanford University
Christopher T. Wimer, Stanford University

We examine the Great Recession’s (2008-2009) effects on fertility and family planning use. We will also discuss why some expected effects may not be clearly visible (because data are inadequate or responses are likely heterogeneous). Using data from Vital Statistics and the Current Population Survey, our preliminary evidence suggests a substantial decline in fertility rates during the recession following years of steady increases. We present evidence that state-level declines in fertility were greatest in states hardest hit by the recession. Further, we find that the recession response was greater in “red states” than in “blue states,” suggesting that partisan political frames were mediating perceptions of the recession’s severity and threat. The proposed paper extends these analyses with data now becoming available.