A Reassessment of Mortality in North Korea, 1993-2008

Daniel M. Goodkind, U.S. Census Bureau
Loraine A. West, U.S. Census Bureau
Peter Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau

In previous work, we addressed mortality trends in North Korea since the time of the 1993 census, including the demographic impact of a famine in the late 1990s. Given a lack of data at that time, two models were developed which estimated a range of 600,000 to 1 million excess deaths. The lower estimate was based on international regularities between child mortality and child morbidity (the latter data available from nutrition studies), and the higher estimate was based on China’s famine experience following its Great Leap Forward. We use newly available data from the 2008 census and intercensal methods to modify this range and estimate recent mortality. Key interpretive questions involve the relation (and possible inconsistency) between child mortality and child morbidity, child mortality and adult mortality, and elevated famine mortality in the late 1990s versus the relatively steady fertility in that era suggested by the 2008 census.