Is India 'Getting Older before Getting Rich'? a Demographic Assessment

Srinivas Goli, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Anamika Pandey, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

This paper analytically points out the challenges that India will have to face in the process of reaping anticipated demographic dividend rather than intriguing a pessimistic or optimistic perspective. Evidences show that the widow of opportunity period for India is probably lasting in between the years 2015 and 2040. The ratio of number of jobs to working population has increased from 1:17 to 1:25. Disease adjusted life expectancy is only 53.5 years and poor nutritional status makes early physical setback. Low adult literacy and decreasing public sectors employment poses socio-economic security problems. These will altogether lead to an early initiation of aging in the life course. A comparative assessment with other countries shows that the projected economic status of India is well below other developed and developing countries. India will have to negotiate on these issues circumspectly; otherwise, India will get old before getting rich.