Demographic Dividend or Demographic Obstacle? How Ethnic, Religious, and Regional Fertility Differentials Keep the TFR High in Nigeria

Holly E. Reed, Queens College, City University of New York (CUNY)
Blessing Mberu, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)

As Nigeria enters a period of potentially rapid economic growth due to the increase in the working-age population, it is critical to understand why fertility remains so high there. Nigeria’s total fertility rate (TFR) of 5.7 children per woman according to the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)is projected to continue to decline, but questions remain about whether this decline is inevitable and whether it will continue apace. Regardless, Nigeria’s population growth will continue through at least 2050 due to simple population momentum. Using the 2003 and 2008 DHS data, we find that key subgroups in the population have extremely high fertility rates: those living in the northern regions, Muslim and traditionalist populations, and rural dwellers, as well as members of particular ethnic groups. For the projected decline in the TFR to continue, these subgroups and areas must be highlighted, understood, and targeted with interventions.