Measuring Net Native Migration: The Present and the Future

Christopher Dick, U.S. Census Bureau
David M Armstrong, U.S. Census Bureau

Net international migration (NIM) estimates are an important part of population estimates and demographic analysis for the U.S. Census Bureau. In this project we focus on one component of the NIM estimate, net native migration. For the last several years, this component has been measured using census data from other developed countries. We present our estimates using current methods and discuss alternate data sources to measure net native migration. Specifically, we explore additional estimation techniques for the native migrant population using Census, American Community Survey (ACS), and administrative data. Additionally, we evaluate possible ways to update and improve the demographic characteristic and geographic distribution of the estimate including: 1) exploring the use of more specific proxy universes for estimating the distribution of the native migrant population; and 2) using the 5-year ACS data that provide county-level distributions that will allow us to move beyond sole reliance on Census 2000 data.